Metabolomics blood test predicts asthma exacerbation risk up to 5 years in advance with 90% accuracy
Asthma is one of the world's most common chronic diseases, affecting over 500 million people.
A blood-based metabolomics method using sphingolipid-to-steroid ratios to predict exacerbation risk up to five years in advance with ~90% accuracy.
Researchers analyzed metabolomics data (small blood molecules) from over 2,500 adults with asthma, combined with up to 25 years of medical records. The strongest predictor: the ratio of sphingolipids (fats involved in inflammation) to steroids (hormone-related compounds).
Using 21 such ratios plus basic clinical info, the model achieved AUC 0.90 (discovery) and 0.89 (replication)—outperforming standard tests like lung function or eosinophil counts. It could differentiate high- vs. low-risk patients by nearly a year to first attack.
According to researchers: “We can identify high-risk patients with 90% accuracy, allowing clinicians to intervene before an attack occurs.” “This ratio is biologically meaningful and robust—ideal for a practical, cost-effective clinical test.”
Further validation and trials are needed before routine use.
Uncontrolled asthma: “What to do when asthma is not doing well?” (click to enlarge the image).
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